Advance Severe Weather Warning - Tropical Storm Bertha - Update - Now Sun 10th Aug

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Pebble

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Although weakening as it crosses the Atlantic, (and now downgraded from a Hurricane), Tropical Storm Bertha is currently on track to hit the South of England - possibly sunday night and through monday.

It will be very wet (heavy rain with possible localised flooding) but more importantly there will be gale force winds and a sea swell (not necessarily a full tidal surge but coastal areas need to be watchful).

Current predictions are showing that on 10/11th August winds will be 83km/hr with gusts of 100km/hr (think last winter's storms)
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/read/index.php?pageid=tstorm_read&trid=879

The timings/positioning/severity of the storm may change as we get nearer the event - it may miss us altogether - however please ensure you make provision now to keep your animals safe and secure during the storm.
 
I'm glad we live in the north and miss these storms that seem to be getting more frequent.
 
It is getting very very dull and boring. We had an 'outdoorsy' weekend lined up and the guineas were looking forward to sunny days in the sun. Probably going to be ruined now. Sulking :rant:
 
Bertha has been downgraded again today and the latest forecast track (if you click on the link above as it is a live updated feed) is that it will just graze the south coast and dump on France instead
It is also entirely possible that it will weaken so much it will fragment/dissipate before it gets here now. But as is the nature with trying to forecast too far in advance, it's also possible Bertha may strengthen again as it gets nearer the UK!

Saturday is currently looking mainly dry but possible risk of thundery showers in the South. Friday there is already a yellow weather warning out from the MetOffice for heavy (possibly thundery) rain between 12noon and 9pm in London, South East and East England areas.

I'll have a better idea of timings etc for the weekend weather by tomorrow evening.
x
 
The latest models tonight have changed and are now showing a direct hit and Bertha increasing in intensity.
Sunday and monday will be affected so please make provision for your outdoor pets....especially if you are in the South
Can't really do anything more atm to alert you to how serious this "might" be.
I shall not post again until we have managed to pin this down with more certainty - probably friday night at the earliest.
x
 
Hi Pebble, do you think I will be affected? I am flying back from JFK on Saturday night arriving Heathrow Sunday 6am'ish, just wondering if it will affect my travel plans...selfish I know but with a short window n which to arrive, collect piggies, get home, rest and back to work, I do wonder.....
@Pebble
 
Hi LIl
I have no experience of flight plans across the Atlantic and how they may/may not be affected. In all honesty - you might get a bit of a delay if the plane has to re-route round a "bit of bad weather" but that should be it. As far as the effects of bertha are concerned after you land - on saturtday night/sunday morning they should be negligible as it won;t have reached us yet. Plenty of time to gt back home under cover with the piggie before sun afternoon/evening.

HTH
 
Bertha will reach us sooner than first thought. Met Office have now released a weather warning for SUNDAY 10TH AUGUST valid 00.15-23.45

"There is the risk of severe weather during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK. At this stage there is more than average uncertainty in the forecast, but the public should be aware of the risk of heavy rain, strong winds and large waves, sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous
This is a particularly volatile situation, and this warning is likely to be changed as the event approaches".

We are still nor sure whether Bertha will indeed pass over the UK or track further south over France. So whilst currently the probability of the event happening is forecast as low, if it does happen the impact will be high.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/....50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1407625200&regionName=se
 

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Well the models are all now starting to agree with each other. Bertha is on course to pass over the middle of the UK. during sunday. You can see Bertha off to the south west
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-3.00,45.19,1430

Here's a timeline of what to expect weatherwise from midnight tonight through sunday.(exact location and strength of storm still subject to change)

Sunday: Midnight to 6am. The storm approaches the UK from the South West affecting S Wales and SW region with very heavy rain and winds of 30-45mph, gusting up to 55mph on exposed areas

6am - midday. The Low passes over the Midlands - Gusts on the southern side of the low may reach 50mph (across South central and south East England). The rain becomes more widespread with heaviest rain on the northern side of the low affecting North Wales, North West, North and Eastern England including Kent/Susex

Midday to 6pm: The Low passes over Northern England. Rain clearing from the SW. Scotland and NE will at this time see the heaviest predicted rainfall (and it is forecast to be torrential) associated with this event. Eastern coasts may see strong gusts up to 60mph.

There may be embedded thunderstorm in the SW as the storm approaches and also in Eastern areas in the afternoon.
There will be a lot of rain, especially in the South West/SWales, North East and Scotland. Flooding from surface water and rivers/streams is a distinct possibility.
The storm coincides with spring tides and a high swell so coastal flooding is also a possibility.
The trees are still in leaf and therefore the winds, although not as strong as last winter, could give rise to debris/fallen trees


BE PREPARED
Secure your property, pets, hutches, runs, BBQ's, tents, trampolines, garden furniture, plant pots, hanging baskets etc today.
If you will be camping tomorrow then make sure you have arrangements in place to seek shelter if necessary.

Keep an eye on the Environment Agency flood warning maps - 4 Flood Alerts have already been issued for the South West
http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx

Keep an eye on the weather sites including the Met Office Warnings:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/...&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1407625200

Specific live feed Rain, lightning and wind maps are below
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Please don't venture out unless you have to and check your route first for flooding/road closures etc

Finally stay safe and sensible - Please respect the weather and don;t put yourselves or others at unnecessary risk..
 
.. The rain was bad enough in Sheffield on Friday .


Thanks for the warning - I'll be stopping at home .
 
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